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Friday, October 13, 2017

Parents and Teachers Are Angry At the NYC DOE For Doing Nothing To Stop the Violence in NYC's Public Schools

Abel Cedeno, left and Matthew McCree, right
re-posted from NYC Public Voice blog:

Are New York City Public Schools Too Dangerous and Unsafe To Attend? Parents and Teachers Say Yes

The murder of teen Mathew McCree on September 27, 2017, while he was sitting in history class at Urban Assembly School for Wildlife Conservation in the Bronx, may be the event that spurs change at the New York City Department of Education. And yet, maybe not.

In New York City students, parents and school staff, especially teachers, have protested the lack of appropriate discipline in NYC schools for many years.  See:

Fatal Stabbing Highlights Persistent Problems at Bronx Middle School (2014)
Safety Last: New York City's Public Schools Are More Dangerous Than Ever (2016):

The key findings of Safety Last are:
" Alarming Spike in Violence in City Schools: The number of violent incidents in city schools rose sharply last year, under Mayor de Blasio and Chancellor Carmen Farina's first full year managing the Department of Education -- from 12,978 in 2013-14 to 15,934 in 2014-15, a disturbing 23 percent increase; School Violence Index at Recorded High: New York City's School Violence Index (SVI) rose by 22 percent in 2014-5, the highest level recorded. New York State uses the SVI to determine which schools are "persistently dangerous," as required by federal law. The School Violence Index is a ratio of violent incidents to enrollment in a school and is determined by the number of incidents, the seriousness of the incidents, and the school's enrollment; Data Suggests de Blasio Administration is Misleading Public: Data suggests that Mayor de Blasio's assertion that crime in city schools is down 29 percent since 2011-12, most recently invoked during his State of the City this month, is at best an incomplete picture. There were more than twice as many "assaults with physical injur[ies]" reported by city schools to the State Education Department than total number of crimes under Mayor de Blasio's calculations; Students at Grave Risk in City Schools: The alarming spike in violence in city schools makes it difficult for students to learn and leaves students in serious risk of danger and bodily harm: A violent incident occurs in district schools every 4.5 minutes; A weapon is recovered in district schools once every 28.4 minutes; Few students are protected: 93% of the city's district school students attend schools where a violent incident has occurred over the past year; In the five months since the 2015-2016 school year began, 42 weapons have been confiscated from 36 elementary schools across the city."

No one is doing anything about it, except covering it up. The case of Eileen Ghastin is a case which shows the New York City Department of Education policy of not giving violent students the appropriate help and guidance they need. The boy who told Ms. Ghastin that he was a boxer and was going to beat her up was given a short suspension and when he returned to school, he broke a window in anger. He needs help, not discipline.

I see the "all students are little angels" policy at work in 3020-a charges, where the NYC Department of Education always blames the teacher: a fight between two or more students shows a lack of classroom management; intervention by a teacher to stop a fight is corporal punishment and misconduct by the teacher; telling a student to stop hurting other students is charged as verbal abuse in 3020-a Specifications, etc.. In Eileen's case, she tried to stop the student from beating her up by telling him she was going to "kill him". She saw that she needed to do something to stop him, and believed that this was the only way. Of course she did not mean it. The arbitrator gave her a fine because he was convinced that the student was embarrassed by the media coverage of the event in the NYPOST, even though the newspaper did not name him. See:

Stellar, Dedicated Teacher Eileen Ghastin Fights the Arbitrator's Decision To Suspend Her For Four Weeks After Almost Being Beaten Up in Her Class

In 2010, two years before the Sandy Hook shooting in Newtown Connecticut, I received a telephone call from an anxious parent whose children had attended the school, and she begged me to help her get services for special needs students in Newtown before somebody went "postal" and people would be harmed. I made many calls to the school board and policymakers. All requests fell into a black hole.
But we know that special education services are not being supplied properly, and the NYC Department of Education is covering this up too. See:

Manhattan U.S. Attorney Sues New York City Department Of Education For Discrimination And Retaliation At Pan American International High School

What the NYC DOE needs to do is hire a General Counsel who can set up an Office of Accountability and Guidance. This office will be given the responsibility of providing each event with a team to find out who did what, and how.  I suggest disbanding the Office of Special Investigations and the Office of Equal Opportunity, as wholly-owned agencies of the NYC DOE and compromised by their allegiance to the bias ingrained in the Department against holding the true culprits accountable for anything. Discipline is not always the answer. There is no set standard for what kind of suspension will "teach him/her a lesson to not harm someone" again.

Betsy Combier
Editor, Advocatz
Editor, NYC Rubber Room Reporter
Editor, New York Court Corruption
Editor, National Public Voice
Editor, NYC Public Voice
Editor, Inside 3020-a Teacher Trials

In the days after Mr. McCree’s death, a memorial grew in the courtyard behind his home in the Bronx.

A bright and popular 15-year-old Bronx boy was stabbed last month in one of the places he loved most — school.

New York Times, By JAN RANSOM, OCT. 12, 2017

The pint-size youngster with an oversized backpack stood on the corner of Mapes Avenue several feet from home, and for a moment contemplated crossing the street. He knew he wasn’t supposed to leave home alone, but he wanted to go to school just like his older brother though he was not old enough, his mother recounted.

Even as a baby, Matthew McCree would cry to go to school, said his mother Louna Dennis. “I’ve never met a kid who just loved school.”

That love of school never faltered. The 15-year-old was a bright and popular student at the Urban Assembly School for Wildlife Conservation in the Bronx, said his parents, classmates and a former teacher’s assistant. Then, nearly three weeks into the start of a new school year, he was killed during history class when the police say a classmate plunged a knife into his chest and back. That student, Abel Cedeno, 18, is also accused of seriously injuring Mr. McCree’s friend, Ariane Laboy, 16, who tried to step in. Mr. Cedeno has been charged with murder.

“Nothing will ever be the same,” Ms. Dennis, 34, said through tears during an interview at her attorney’s office in Brooklyn. “Matthew was a light; he lights up everybody.”

The effervescent teenager had big dreams. Standing at 5-foot-10, 156 pounds, Mr. McCree, a junior, wanted to attend Fordham University and become a professional basketball player. If that didn’t pan out, he said he planned to join the Marines, Ms. Dennis said.

His stepfather, Kyle Victor Sr., 36, said he taught Mr. McCree how to play basketball. He was a fast learner, said Mr. Victor, who raised him since he was 6. The teenager played basketball with friends at Crotona Park and in the courtyard behind his building. His school did not have a basketball team.

Mr. McCree grew up in a two-bedroom apartment at Mapes Court, two six-story brick buildings a half a mile from the Bronx Zoo.

He lived with his mother; brother, Kevon Dennis, 17; and his sister, Kayla Dennis, 4. His stepbrother, Kyle Victor Jr., 10, was always eager to visit on weekends. The family had a cat named Elmo, and a Maltese named Baby.

Mr. McCree shared a small room with his older brother, which after his death bore little sign of him. Ms. Dennis said she and her older son disposed of most of his belongings because they reminded them that Matthew was gone. All that remained was an unfinished mural that read: “Money Matt” and “You’ll Live Forever.”

“He had the most annoying laugh ever,” Mr. Dennis said with a slight smile in the courtyard. Mr. Dennis, who attended Wildlife for middle school and then left for a different high school, sat near a growing memorial of blue and white candles, enlarged photos of his brother, a basketball and countless hand-scrawled messages, including one that read: “No student should be scared to walk the halls.”

Ms. Dennis said Wildlife had a better reputation when her eldest son attended. The principal was active, accessible and frequently accompanied students on school trips. The school also had a program in which staff walked students home, creating a bond, but the program ended.

Last year, on an annual survey, just 55 percent of the students at the school reported they felt safe there, and only 19 percent of teachers said they would recommend the school.

“Nobody had the kids under control,” Mr. Dennis said. “Every day the cops were outside. It just got bad.”

The school administration and the education department declined to comment.

Mr. Cedeno told police that his peers had been bullying him about his perceived sexual orientation, though Mr. McCree and Mr. Laboy had never been in contact with him before that day. Police said Mr. Cedeno began carrying a knife to school.

A grand jury is hearing from witnesses about the stabbing on Sept. 27, according to the district attorney’s office and Sanford Rubenstein, Ms. Dennis’ attorney. Mr. Rubenstein said the family will not take legal action until after Mr. McCree’s funeral. A wake for Mr. McCree will be on Friday evening at the Castle Hill Funeral Parlor in the Bronx. His funeral is at 7 a.m. on Saturday. He will be buried in Canarsie Cemetery in Brooklyn.

Ms. Dennis and Mr. McCree’s friends said he never mentioned Mr. Cedeno. Relatives and classmates said that Mr. McCree was not a bully.

Mr. McCree’s neighbor, Doreen Jimenez, 33, whom he called his “Spanish mom,” said that she has been married to a woman for three years and that the teenager never judged her. She said Mr. McCree was often at her house for dinner, or hanging out with her three daughters who were close friends of his.

A longtime friend of Mr. McCree’s, Hensehk Bernardez, 16, who transferred out of Wildlife in the ninth grade, said Mr. Cedeno “was a socially awkward kid,” and that “Matthew would never bully a gay person; he knew better than that.”

Bronx School's Dangerous Climate Ignored Long Before Stabbings, Parents Say
Police and others at the Urban Assembly School for Wildlife Conservation, a middle and high school that
shares a building with P.S. 67.

By  Danielle Barnes Janon Fisher and Amy Zimmer | September 29, 2017 12:51pm |Updated on October 2, 2017 7:42am

BRONX — The high school where two students were stabbed this week — one fatally — was seething with violence and intimidation prior to the deadly attack, according to parents and school safety data.
School safety officials and many parents from the Urban Assembly School for Wildlife Conservation wondered why the building did not have metal detectors or more security before Abel Cedeno stabbed two classmates during a Wednesday morning history class 
Cedeno — an 18-year-old who had been bullied and frequently subjected to racial and homophobic taunts, according to his family — fatally stabbed Matthew McCree, 15, and critically injured a 16-year-old after they threw pencils at him.
Friends said Cedeno bought the 3-inch knife he used in the stabbing nearly two weeks ago off of Amazon and sent videos to them showing him opening the switchblade.
The West Farms high school had a history of bullying and violent incidents that were well above the average of others schools citywide, city Department of Education data shows.
Parents said the concerns they shared about safety and other bullying incidents with Principal Astrid Jacobo fell on deaf ears, while security agents said they had previously asked for metal detectors at the building, which is shared with P.S. 67.
"The union has been stressing to the de Blasio Administration that this school needs metal detectors, and we have gotten nothing but pushback from the administration,” said Gregory Floyd, president of the School Safety Officers union, Teamsters Local 237. “There's a lack of disciplinary enforcement at the school, and the students can sense it."
Uneek Valentin, whose son attends the high school, said her 17-year-old had been bullied there, but that his tormentor was not suspended after she spoke to the principal about the situation.
“[I talked] to the principal last year about the fighting, but nothing came of it,” she said.
Eventually, her son beat his bully with a belt, Valentin admitted.
Jacobo, who has been the head of the school for nearly three years, did not immediately respond to calls for comment.
The school building — which parents said has two safety agents handling roughly 1,200 students — saw two major crimes during the 2015-'16 school year, according to city Department of Education data.
That was nearly four times the citywide average of 0.57 major crimes for the same size school, the data show.
State education data for that school year, which is the most recent available, also showed that the Urban Assembly School for Wildlife Conservation had a higher-than-average number of incidents.
There were three sex offenses and two assaults, including one involving a weapon, at the school last year, the data shows. The school also had nine incidents of intimidation, harassment or bullying, two of which involved weapons.
Out of 1,800 traditional public and charter schools citywide, only 40 reported more than two bullying incidents with weapons, according to the data.
Though the administration touted last school year as the safest on record — with the de Blasio administration discussing the possibility of reducing the number of schools with metal detectors — the experience of students at Wildlife Conservation reveals a different story.
Many students reported feeling unsafe there, according to the annual Department of Education survey that polls the school community.
Only 55 percent of kids last year said they felt safe in hallways, cafeteria, bathrooms and locker rooms. That was down significantly from the year before, when 75 percent of kids said they felt safe. Only 47 percent of students said they felt safe just outside the building.
Parents said their children felt the school was a dangerous place.
"These kids are getting beat up and jump[ed] right outside of school. These things [are] happening often,” said Jeannette Martinz, 47, whose ninth- and 12th-graders attend the school. “The principal and staff are covering [what’s] going on in the school.”
There were also other red flags about the school’s principal.
Only 44 percent of the teachers said they trusted the principal — 37 percent less than the citywide average, the DOE survey said. Only 43 percent of teachers agreed that the principal knew what was going on in the classrooms.
Not everyone believes the answer to making the school safer is to bring in metal detectors.
Of the roughly 3 million scans conducted during the first two months of last school year across 200 schools that have permanent or temporary metal detectors, only a small number of items were confiscated — including 73 knives, 21 boxcutters, three BB guns and an unloaded handgun, Pro Publica reported.
NYPD school-safety chief Brian Conroy noted Thursday that safety agents last year recovered more weapons than ever, but that most were not found through scanning.
Nearly 1,430 weapons were confiscated at schools last year, the NYPD said previously. 
"We didn't see any reasons prior to having scanning in that school," Conroy said at a press conference Thursday.
Members of the Urban Youth Collaborative, a youth-led coalition that has focused on reforming overly punitive discipline that disproportionately affects people of color, called for mental health supports instead.
“The default response following tragic incidents involving young people in communities of color has been to prioritize policing and incarceration,” read a joint statement from the Collaborative's Roberto Cabanas and Bryan Aju.
“Research shows the most promising strategies for sustaining safe and supportive school communities is building strong relationships between students and staff through the use of restorative practices and increasing the number of guidance counselors, social workers, and trained mental health support staff," they continued.
Meanwhile, members of the Bronx-based New Settlement Parent Action Committeesaid that increasing police presence represents a "superficial" solution to a "deep and complex problem."
Instead, they called for "community-building circles" to prevent bullying and violence, as well as "healing circles" to help students processing trauma in moments of tragedy.
"Metal detectors will not prevent violent fights in our schools," the group said in a statement. "We know that anything can be made into a weapon if a student is feeling trapped and desperate, but if our schools are safe, affirming, and supportive environments for young people, we can eliminate violence in our schools altogether."
It was unclear whether Cedeno reached out to a counselor or other staff members at his school.
NYPD officials said Cedeno had been harassed by other individuals at the start of school, though not by the two teens involved in Wednesday's stabbing. While police said he had not reached out to anyone at Wildlife Conservation about the situation, his family believes the school was aware of his bullies and did nothing to stop them.
"I have instructed my team to conduct a thorough investigation on all issues, and this is underway," Schools Chancellor Carmen Fariña said in a statement. "We have additional safety measures and grief counselors in place and will continue to support the school community."
With reporting by Clifford Michel

The mother of a New York City public school student, a plaintiff in a class-action lawsuit, spoke about her son’s mistreatment outside the Education Department’s headquarters on Thursday.
New York Times, 
A group of public school families and a pro-charter advocacy group filed a lawsuit in Federal District Court this week alleging that the atmosphere at New York City public schools was depriving students of their right to receive an education free of violence, bullying and harassment.

The class-action suit, filed on Wednesday in New York’s Eastern District against the New York City Education Department and its chancellor, Carmen Fariña, claims that violence in schools is increasing, and that it is often underreported. The suit also says that school violence disproportionately affects certain groups of students, like those who are black, Hispanic, gay, bisexual or transgender.

The suit, which claims the Education Department has failed “to address and remediate in-school violence in New York City’s public schools,” was filed by 11 students and their families. They were joined by Families for Excellent Schools, a pro-charter advocacy group that has been a fierce and frequent critic of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s education policies.

The group’s chief executive, Jeremiah Kittredge, held a news conference on Thursday morning in front of the Education Department’s headquarters in Manhattan, to encourage other public school parents to join the suit.

The group’s picture of violence in the city’s schools directly counters Mr. de Blasio’s. In a statement, the mayor said he viewed “each incidence as obviously troubling,” but challenged the group’s facts, saying that “this year to date, the major crime in our schools is down 14.29 percent and other crimes down 6.77 percent.”

The UFT Retro Payment Mess

Mike Antonucci, a prolific writer now giving his opinions on 74 on wednesdays, asks:

"So while public-sector unions must prepare for the consequences of members leaving unions entirely, they must also prepare to operate in a world where members easily move from one union to another, or to a non-union association. How ready are they for an actual marketplace in labor representation?"

The Supreme Court may, in it's Janus ruling, force changes to the way that the UFT does business.

This is a good move, if it stops the UFT bigwigs' misuse of money seen by the rank and file.

Betsy Combier

NYC Teachers Union Sows Confusion as It Delivers Raises, Double Dips on Dues by MIKE ANTONUCCI, The 74

It won’t buy a river view, but many New York City teachers and other school staff will receive a hefty paycheck this week, part of the back wages they’re owed for two years when they worked without a contract while other municipal workers enjoyed raises.

They won’t entirely be made whole, however, because their union, the United Federation of Teachers, deducts dues from retroactive pay even though it took out their annual dues for these same years at the time — a practice that dissenting members in the UFT described as double-dipping.

“It looked like we got double-duesed,” said Mindy Rosier, a special education teacher in Harlem, after an earlier retroactive payment in October 2015. At that time, Rosier’s normal dues deduction per paycheck was $54.17; that amount jumped to $91.58 when she received her retro pay.

“It’s a big, huge contract; there should be a reminder that, by the way … this is what we’re going to do,’ ” said Rosier, who was part of a slate that unsuccessfully challenged UFT’s leadership in the 2016 election. “I think they depend on [members being unaware] because I think if people remember, they’re afraid people will make a stink.”

UFT dues are “flat,” meaning all teachers are charged the same amount rather than a percentage of their salary. (Members with different job titles, like guidance counselors or secretaries, pay different amounts than teachers but the same as others who share their title.) A small but active population of teacher-activist bloggers has complained for years that flat rates impose a disproportionate burden on younger, lower-earning peers, but deductions on back pay appear to be infrequently discussed and poorly understood.

One theme among the online commentariat at the time of the October 2015 retroactive payment was the UFT’s purported need to hoard funds in advance of an expected U.S. Supreme Court decision abolishing mandatory fees — a judicial possibility that is today considerably closer at hand and weighing on unions nationwide.

“Perhaps part of the deal was that since UFT is taking a bigger slice of dues with these retro payments, they wanted to secure some future dues-paying in case many teachers bail if we become a Right to Work state. Slick,” said an anonymous but representative commenter on an NYC teacher blog at the time.

When asked by a teacher earlier this year if additional dues would be deducted from this October’s retroactive pay, a UFT phone representative identified a similar but more local reason for the UFT to bolster its reserves.

“I can’t say yes or no because it could be yes, it could be yes, it could be no, because it all depends on what the executives feel, you know,” he said. “They don’t want to go to the hassle and just say no and they might say yes, well, they need the money because a lot of stuff politically — we need to send money for whatever we need to, because we got to get ready for the next negotiation, right?”

This week’s additional wage boost — a 2 percent increase on 2009 and 2010 salaries — was negotiated as part of the UFT’s 2014 collective bargaining agreement. Mayor Bill de Blasio agreed to compensate UFT members for the difference between their actual earnings since 2009, when the last contract expired, and what they would have earned if given the same increases that went to members of most city unions.

The mayor’s spokeswoman, Freddi Goldstein, said this week, “This is between the union leadership and its members,” declining to comment further. The Department of Education did not respond to several requests for comment.

The payout will be the second of five spaced between 2015 and 2020 because the city couldn’t afford to pay the entire amount at once. Educators will receive between several hundred and several thousand dollars; exact figures for this round are unclear because the Department of Education’s payroll portal, which allows employees to view paychecks a few days early, was taken down Tuesday after displaying “incorrect deduction information” with regard to UFT charges, the union said. The deductions “appeared to have doubled. This information is incorrect,” according to the union.

Pay stubs from several teachers for the October 2015 retro payment show union deductions going up by as much as $37.27, a nearly 70 percent increase. During that period, the city’s payroll portal crashed — apparently from so much activity.

Finding correct information this year may not have been easy either. Multiple calls to dedicated UFT hotlines yielded confused and apparently incorrect explanations, according to a teacher who is also the UFT chapter leader at a school.

“Union dues has nothing to do with the retro payment,” one specialist told the teacher. She wrongly explained that dues are proportional to earnings. “Obviously, since you are only being paid part [of what you would have earned] in 2009 and 2011, not enough dues was taken out of your check at that time, do you follow me?” she said. “So when I’m looking here, I can see this is pro-rated of what you were owed, now what you owe, what you should have been paid in union dues 2009 to 2011. Did you understand my mumbo jumbo?”

The UFT says its approach is commonsensical. “Retro and lump sum payments are in effect wages,” spokesman Dick Riley said in a statement this week. “As such, the UFT has traditionally deducted dues from lump sum/retro payments, just as taxes, Social Security, and benefits are deducted.”

Riley said the annual flat-rate structure results in dues collections that are “slightly below the maximum possible” using the union’s formula for calculating deductions. “For computational simplicity, the UFT determined to collect dues on the lump sum payments on the basis of the approved .85 rate rather than the flat rate.”

“Computational simplicity” does not spring to mind when contemplating the union dues calculations; the annual fee is a product of internal decisions dating back to 1982 that tie it to the UFT’s second-highest level in the salary structure, know as 8B plus L20, the latter number indicating 20 years of service. The “maximum possible” rate would instead use the highest salary (8B plus L22) as the basis for dues. Currently, a new teacher with only a bachelor’s degree earns $45,530 and pays dues based on a percentage of $95,202, the maximum 20-year salary. Teachers with greater experience and education, whose salaries may exceed $95,202, also pay dues on that amount.

A small part of dues, which as of Wednesday were deducted in semi-monthly payments of $56.65, or $1,359.60 annually, goes to the UFT’s state and national affiliates.

It’s not clear why the Department of Education calculates retroactive dues based on a percentage of how much each member receives, rather than using the year-to-year flat rate. What is certain, according to current and former chapter chairs, is that apart from the small number who are politically engaged in union issues, teachers are largely unconcerned with the added-on dues.

“What they’re losing is an almost unnoticeable thing for individual teachers,” said Evan Stone, co-CEO of the teacher advocacy group Educators for Excellence. “I think the average teacher would say, ‘The union got me this money. It makes sense that I would pay the same dues that I paid on the rest.’ ”

The UFT did not respond to requests for the total amount of dues deducted from this week’s retroactive payment or from the 2015 payment. It’s also not clear what the union will take in from additional dues charged during the retroactive payments in 2018, 2019 and 2020 (there was no retroactive increase given in 2016). There are 120,000 active UFT members, “most” of whom, the union said, qualified for retroactive raises.

Three union hotline specialists assured a teacher in recent months that any news about dues relating to the October 2017 payment would be in New York Teacher, the UFT’s journal, which did not appear to happen. A seven-paragraph announcement before the 2015 payment said, “All payroll contributions and deductions will be updated.”

With neither chapter leaders nor UFT service reps able to explain dues obligations, at least one veteran union-watcher says the teachers union makes it too difficult to understand many of its money-related decisions.

“This is an organization that is super close to the mayor and super powerful in New York City politics,” said Bill Hammond, of the right-leaning Empire Center for Public Policy. “One of the reasons it’s powerful is that it has so much money to spend. They’re doing this kind of mysterious thing with dues when arguably they have no right to back dues at all. Why would they feel the need to do something like this?”

Reporter Mareesa Nicosia contributed to this report.

Disclosure: David Cantor served as press secretary for the New York City Department of Education from 2005 to 2010.

Janus v. AFSCME: Lawyers in Key Union Case Appeal to U.S. Supreme Court for 2017–18 Hearing

Everyone and his brother in the education policy world spent Tuesday morning watching Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos testify before the Senate Appropriations subcommittee. But while that D.C. showdown was streaming live, attorneys for the plaintiff in the case of Janus v. AFSCMEwere quietly making it official and filing for review by the U.S. Supreme Court.
It’s the latter story that will have broader ramifications. If, as widely expected, the court ultimately rules in favor of Mark Janus, it will put an end to the practice of public sector unions charging agency fees to non-members.
Since only four justices are required to grant a writ of certiorari, it is virtually certain the case will be accepted for the court’s next session, beginning in October. Barring unforeseen delays, oral arguments should be heard in the winter and a ruling issued by June 2018.
Janus works for the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services. In a statement, he explained why he brought his case: “To keep my job at the state, I have to pay monthly fees to the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, a public employee union that claims to ‘represent’ me,” Janus says. “I’m filing this case on behalf of all government employees who want to serve their community or their state without having to pay a union first.”
Government workers in 20 states, including public school teachers, are required to pay agency fees if they choose not to join the union. Should the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of Janus, teachers unions estimate they could lose between 20 percent and 40 percent of their membership in those states.
As I reported last week: The National Education Association has modified its proposed budget for 2017–18 to include an estimated loss of 20,000 full-time equivalent members. This seems accurate because even larger losses won’t be felt until the 2018–19 school year. The California Teachers Association’s executive director recently warned activists to be prepared for membership losses as high as 30 percent to 40 percent. Despite his alert, CTA does not seem to have made any adjustments to its own 2017–18 budget. The United Federation of Teachers’ New York City local estimates a 20 percent reduction in membership and feels it can safely cut $16 million, which is about 10 percent of the annual dues it collects. Read my full analysis of how unions are bracing for the fallout.